Greater Chicago Strat League Newsletter
July 3, 2016
KEY DATES:
1. 7/9/2016 (Saturday) – Computer Manager
(.MGR) files containing 25-man rosters (initial Major/Minor setup) and pitching
rotations (Starter Schedule) due to Game Manager.
2. 7/9/2016 (Saturday) – Deadline for rule change
proposals to be nominated and seconded.
Deadline for Executive Committee nominations.
3.
7/13/2016 (Wednesday) – Rule Change and Executive Committee
election ballot published for inspection.
4.
7/21/2016
(Thursday) – Computer
Manager (.MGR) files containing final player settings and manager tendencies,
along a separately attached default lineup number specifications
document/spreadsheet for each game due to Game Manager.
5.
7/24/2016 (Sunday) – Final Rule Change and Executive Committee
election ballot published.
6. 8/2/2016 (Tuesday) – Season trade
deadline; Voting on rule change proposals and executive committee election
due. Draft picks for next season become
available for trade after deadline.
TRADE SUMMARY (since 6/2):
June 25, 2016
To VRN: Andrelton Simmons, Sergio Romo, Will Smith*
To CAL: Javier Baez (Taxi), Jhonny Peralta
June 26, 2016
To VRN: Zach Britton*
To SYI: Will Smith*, Alex Bregman, Hunter Renfroe (Taxi)
June 28, 2016
To BUR: HEP-3
To HEP: Mike Napoli, BUR-13
June 28, 2016
To SRD: Elvis Andrus, Ender Inciarte*, Desmond Jennings, Shawn Kelley, Sean Doolittle* (Taxi)
To BUR: Alex Gordon*, JJ Hardy, Trae Turner (Taxi), Andrew Benintendi*, Lourdes Gurriel Jr, Cesar Jimenez*
June 30, 2016
To DYE: HEP-4
To HEP: Mark Canha, DYE-15
July 1, 2016
To NYY: Melky Cabrera+, Jake Thompson (Taxi), Dan Jennings*, HEP-2, HEP-5
To HEP: Yovani Gallardo, Ryan Raburn, NYY-14, BUR-14
July 1, 2016
To: SYI: HEP-6, HEP-9
To HEP: Aaron Altherr, SYI-14, SYI-15
July 1, 2016
To BUR: CRC-6
To CRC: Josh Fields, BUR-12
July 2, 2016
To VRN: Aaron Sanchez, Vince Velasquez
To CRC: Sonny Gray, Sergio Romo
July 2, 2016
To DYE: CRC-7
To CRC: Liam Hendriks, DYE-13
July 2, 2016
To NYY: SYI-9
To SYI: David Murphy*, NYY-13
What this means for HEP (4 trades):
Total Additions: Mike Napoli, Mark Canha, Yovani Gallardo, Ryan Raburn, Aaron Altherr, BUR-13, NYY-14, BUR-14, SYI-14, SYI-15, DYE-15
Total Subtractions: Melky Cabrera+, Jake Thompson (Taxi), Dan Jennings*, HEP-2, HEP-3, HEP-4, HEP-5, HEP-6, HEP-9
Can anyone tell - is HEP going for it? Last month I said: “Watch for HEP to add a 1B vs lefties to the dugout - unless he is content moving Norris over there. He may also look to upgrade on Pearce vs R at 1B before the playoffs. Mission accomplished. Napoli gives him some serious punch at 1B vs Lefties and despite the low average, he should be a serviceable 1B option for HEP both ways next year (.769 OPSvR/ .787 OPSvL). Canha now serves as the other side of that Platoon and offers some position flexibility, but only offers a card for Steve since he is injured and will be an offseason cut. Raburn gives his another lefty killer in the OF and Altherr brings 70 great ABs vs R. Gallardo is probably the most critical add as he moves in as a new #3 and suddenly HEP looks like they may not be content with the #2 seed. Having also moved his 1st earlier, HEP is sacrificing next year to be all in this year.
What this means for VRN (3 trades):
Total Additions: Andrelton Simmons, Zach Britton*, Aaron Sanchez, Vince Velasquez
Total Subtractions: Jhonny Peralta, Alex Bregman, Javier Baez (Taxi), Hunter Renfroe (Taxi), Sonny Gray
The 2 time defending champs have not been viewed as the favorite, but they continue to hold the #1 seed and these trades will further help that. Simmons is not the hitter Peralta is, but his defense is such an improvement (1e8 vs 4e10) that this is a big upgrade. Neither player is likely to be carried over, or at least not as an impact player. As you recall, VRN basically traded Puig earlier in the year for Baez (which looks to be a good call in hindsight), and now has turned around and effectively moved him for Simmons. Britton gives John a dominant closer for this year and next at the cost of 2 very good minor leaguers (Bregman - a top 10 SS prospect at AA and Renfroe - a lower level OF prospect crushing the ball at AAA). The cost was not cheap, but VRN’s top 2 weaknesses are now addressed. Fans were starting to talk of a three-peat! AND THEN he traded away Gray for pitching help for next year and beyond in Sanchez and Velasquez. Gray, who is a game 1/4/7 starter as good as pretty much any other #1 guy is now heading to VRNs top competitor. VRN is still heading to the playoffs, but the #1 seed is no longer a lock and he is no longer a favorite to three-peat. Fans are boycotting the stadium.
What this means for CRC (3 trades):
Total Additions: Sony Gray, Josh Fields, Sergio Romo, Liam Hendriks, BUR-12, DYE-13
Total Subtractions: Aaron Sanchez, Vince Velasquez, CRC-6, CRC-7
Hendriks, Fields and Romo are mediocre right handed relievers who will not be carried over. The CRC bullpen was a bit thin, but this must be more about regular season innings than the playoffs. But Gray is a game changer - a season changer! GM Glenn Panner has been pretty quiet since getting Harvey in the preseason, but the addition of Gray (who makes Harvey their #2 now) not only makes him almost a lock for the Wild Card, it puts the division and more importantly a championship back into play.
What this means for SRD (1 trade):
Total Additions: Elvis Andrus, Ender Inciarte*, Desmond Jennings, Shawn Kelley, Sean Doolittle* (Taxi)
Total Subtractions: Alex Gordon*, JJ Hardy, Trae Turner (Taxi), Andrew Benintendi*, Lourdes Gurriel Jr, Cesar Jimenez*
Lots of names, but what does this really mean for a great pitching team that has not been plating runs? Oddly enough, Kelley and Doolittle will not improve his bullpen for this year (over Jimenez), but both could be nice additions for next year. Defensively, losing Hardy and Gordon are hard to overcome, so at best this is a push there. Any offensive upgrade with Andrus, Inciarte and Jennings seems slight, so I do not see how this trade solves their offensive challenges, unless there was a clubhouse chemistry problem. Gordon was a bit overused, so this may be partially to address late season usage challenges. Without going into specifics, none of these players are doing anything special for next year either. This has a bit of a panic feel as a result of a really unlucky month.
What this means for BUR (3 trades):
Total Additions: Alex Gordon*, JJ Hardy, Trae Turner (Taxi), Andrew Benintendi*, Lourdes Gurriel Jr, Cesar Jimenez*, HEP-3, CRC-6
Total Subtractions: Elvis Andrus, Ender Inciarte*, Desmond Jennings, Shawn Kelley, Sean Doolittle* (Taxi), Mike Napoli, Josh Fields, BUR-12, BUR-13
Napoli and Fields for a 3rd and 6th helps get BUR close to “whole” with their picks for next year. They key to the “big deal” is that they really just gave up a solid middle aged SS in Andrus and a couple solid relievers and they landed 3 pretty good prospects. Turner is a top 15 prospect now at the bigs, playing CF until he can find a way to get some starts at SS. Benintendi is a top 25 prospect struggling a bit at AA and Lourdes is a hot name projected to play OF or SS that has not signed yet after his defection from Cuba. Overall, since this season fell apart for Wes, this has the feeling of taking some lemons and turning it into some fresh squeezed lemonade!
What this means for SYI (3 trades):
Total Additions: Will Smith*, Alex Bregman, Hunter Renfroe (Taxi), David Murphy*, HEP-6, HEP-9, NYY-13
Total Subtractions: Zach Britton*, Aaron Altherr, SYI-9, SYI-14, SYI-15
Britton is a great left handed closer, no doubt. But he has always been better vs L than R and he is probably not a great piece for a team that is rebuilding. Bregman is a top 10 prospect hitting .297/.415/.559 at AA and looks like he could stick at SS even as he moves to AAA any time now. Renfroe may not have the “prospect rating”, but is hitting .325/.345/.597 at AAA and likely to be called up the 2nd half. This looks to be a great foundation trade for Craig. In moving Altherr, he did not get much, but he gave up just 70 ABs. The downside is he is still young and will be back in August to add to a solid start early in the year. Murphy must have been needed to make up for the lost ABs from Altherr.
What this means for NYY (2 trades):
Total Additions: Melky Cabrera+, Jake Thompson (Taxi), Dan Jennings*, HEP-2, HEP-5, SYI-9
Total Subtractions: Yovani Gallardo, Ryan Raburn, David Murphy*, NYY-13, NYY-14, BUR-14
Gallardo is off to arguably his worst season as a pro, Raburn is just doing ok and Murphy isn’t even playing. This is NYY officially pulling out of the wild card race and getting a solid LF for next year in Cabrera, some innings from Jennings and a mediocre AAA pitching prospect. Adding the 2 and 5 now give him 10 picks in the first 5 rounds. NYY is positioning themselves well for a strong draft next year.
What this means for DYE (2 trades):
Total Additions: HEP-4, CRC-7
Total Subtractions: Mark Canha, Liam Hendriks, DYE-13, DYE-15
Canha is out for the year and of no help to DYE for next year, so getting a late 4th round pick for a good (but not great) offensive card on a team not going for it this year is a no-brainer. Hendriks has been hurt and didn’t pitch that well when healthy, so this is nothing more than Jim getting some value out of solid reliever card. Smart moves, but nothing to write home about.
What this means for CAL (1 trade):
Total Additions: Javier Baez (Taxi), Jhonny Peralta
Total Subtractions: Andrelton Simmons, Sergio Romo, Will Smith*
CAL is clearly throwing in the towel for this year and with Corey Seager, Simmons is going to be jobless anyway. Romo and Smith have been hurt and could have a good enough second half to be carried over, but I wouldn’t count on it. Peralta is on his way to retirement (maybe not by his own decision). Greg found a good upside gamble in Baez at no real impact to his short or long term plans.
FINES & FINANCES:
Since 6/2:
No Fines.
9 Owners have traded picks in the 1st 3 rounds next year. HEP’s fees are waived. SRD joins BUR, CRC, HUC, OAK and VRN as having settled the outstanding balance. CAL ($21) and DUB ($17) still owe a balance.
Bank account balance was $1991.91. New Bank account balance is $2,031.91.
MISC COMMENTARY:
Playoff Projections:
There is still a lot of time left, but last month put some distance in may of the races. 7 teams in the race for 6 playoff spots - with maybe 2 more looking for both a hot streak and some help to climb back into the race.
Capitol Division:
HUC (18-6 last month, 56-34 overall) had a huge month while SRD (10-14, 47-43) had some terrible luck and fell 9 games back. SRD lost 9 games this post month by 1 run and 3 more by 2. They scored 2 runs or less in 6 of their losses and 3 runs in another 4 losses, which supports the fears that even the greatest pitchings needs some run support - and this team is struggling in that column. Still, expect that luck to turn around and if their big trade can improve team chemistry, they are one of the teams hoping to get back into the WIld Card race and maybe even back into the Division race. Note - HUC, who made no moves to improve, has their toughest schedule this month and that lead could to a shrinking division lead.
Midwest Division:
I said smart money was on DET, but I don’t think anyone expected this. DET (18-6, 49-41) went on a run that included a 9 game winning streak and even turned it around so much they have a positive run differential (5.06/4.67). Meanwhile, Division play was not so nice to CHI (8-18, 39-51), who fell back to a tie for 2nd with DYE (11-13, 39-51), 10 games back. None of these teams have made any moves to get better, but only DYE is selling off. I think you can put this one in the books, but CHI does not appear to be giving up quite yet..
South Central Division:
YDR (12-12, 54-36) had their second sub-standard month while HEP (17-7, 58-32) had their second straight great month in way to a 2 game lead over HUC for the #2 seed and a 4 game Division lead over YDR. This team is hitting, with 9 of their past 24 games totaling 7 or more runs scored, leading to a 13 game win streak. No specific leaders, just a well balanced team attack that has not been supplemented with a new #3 starter, a good 1B platoon and some extra OF help. YDR, on the other hand, needs to find some power, but has made no moves to close that gap. 8 of their past 24 games saw 0 or 1 runs scored, so they need to either get lucky or add some hitting - or maybe a combination of both. Meanwhile, OAK (13-11, 51-39) is just 3 games back of the Wild Card spot and still very much in the race. They too struggle plating runs in the past month, getting 2 or less across 8 times and scoring more than 5 only 4 times, but have not made any moves to get better. This division looks to be tough till the end, but more around the wild card race than the division race.
Coastal Division:
VRN (16-8, 62-28) had another strong month and lost only 1 game to CRC (17-7, 54-36), who attempts to lock up a wild card. Although VRN solidified their weakness at closer and SS, the move of Gray to CRC could rock this division. 8 games may not be enough to hold off the surging CRC team. DUB (14-10, 48-42) falls further back and now needs some help to climb over OAK and probably YDR to grab a Wild Card. I can’t point to a specific reason why DUB is not winning, except bad luck (11-15 in 1-run games) and a really tough division. They have not made any moves, so they are just counting on their luck to turn things around. BUR (8-16, 39-51) continued their slide and now threw in the towel, trading away much of their team. This next month could be an interesting one for DUB, as they could be buyers or sellers at the trade deadline.
Top Draft Pick Projections:
Right now, OAK, DUB and SRD have the top 3 picks, with SYI and NYY sitting at 4 and 5. Remember, 2 of those top 3 picks have been dealt (SRD-1 owned by NYY and DUB-1 owned by AAR).
**Note - all commentary is not intended to offend, just to provide some “conversation” to recent activity.