Greater Chicago Strat League Newsletter

August 20, 2016

KEY DATES:

1. 9/9/2016 (Friday) – Rosters expand; unlimited major league roster of eligible players for final month’s games. The game limits you to 15 pitchers on your ML roster. You may use more than 15 pitchers by sending a list of the extra pitchers and they will be called up as other pitchers are used up.

2. 9/9/2016 (Friday) – Playoff rosters for potential playoff teams must be submitted.

3. 9/9/2016 (Friday) – Computer Manager (.MGR) files containing active rosters (initial Major/Minor setup) and pitching rotations (Starter Schedule) due to Game Manager.

4. 9/21/2016 (Wednesday) – Computer Manager (.MGR) files containing final player settings and manager tendencies, along a separately attached default lineup number specifications document/spreadsheet for each game due to Game Manager.

TRADE SUMMARY (since 8/2):

August 15, 2016

To CAL: Daniel Murphy*, BUR-11, 2018 BUR-6

To BUR: Michael Conforto*, Austin Meadows* (Taxi), CAL-7, 2018 CAL-1

August 18, 2016

To HEP: Mike Bolsinger, AAR-15

To AAR: HEP-11

August 18, 2016

To HEN: Jimmy Nelson

To VRN: Carlos Beltran+

August 19, 2016

To DYE: Scott Kazmir*, YDR-12

To YDR: DYE-3

FINES & FINANCES:

Since 8/2:

SRD is fined $10 for running out of catchers. Santana played out of position at C for the final 4 games of the month.

9 Owners have traded picks in the 1st 3 rounds next year. HEP’s fees are waived. BUR, CRC, HUC, OAK, SRD and VRN have settled the outstanding balance. CAL ($21) and DUB ($17) still owe a balance.

Bank account balance was $2,031.91. New Bank account balance remains at $2,031.91.

Team	Balance as of 8/20/16 (-xx indicates credit for owner)
League bank	$2,031.91
AAR (Steve L)	$0.00
BUR (Wes)	$0.00
CAL (Greg)	$21.00
CHI (RichD)	$0.00
COL (Frank)	$0.00
CRC (Alan)	$0.00
CUB (Tony)	$0.00
DET (MikeW)	$0.00
DUB (AdamS)	$17.00
DYE (Jim A)	$0.00
HEN (Miles)	$5.00
HEP (Steve S)	-$7.00
HUC (Doug)	$0.00
NYY (Jim C)	$0.00
OAK (Joe)	$0.00
SRD (Ralph)	$10.00
SYI (Craig)	-$40.00
TAM (MikeA)	$0.00
VRN (John)	$0.00
YDR (Brian)	$0.00
League Balance	$2,037.91

MISC COMMENTARY:

1st Round Draft Recap:

With only 2 months remaining, let’s look back on the draft and evaluate how the first round picks have impacted the replay and how well positioned they are as a carryover for the 2017 replay. Remember, the draft is focused on the potential of the card, my analysis is on how the “dice rolls” actually impacted the team’s performance. In the same way, a player's potential reaches far beyond the 2017 MLB performance and sometimes requires patience, but this analysis is based solely on the stats to date. In case you want to save some time, the big winners were DYE, CUB and YDR! (Note, this was written before the August Replay was posted.)

1: Matt Duffy, SFN/TB 3B, CHI

Replay Impact: Playing as the everyday 3B, he has contributed a .289 average with 11 HRs, 53 Runs and 37 RBIs through July. He has been a nice filler at the hot corner and filled a need, however, he has hardly been an impact player and the team is still under .500.

Carryover Impact: The sophomore slump is on in a big way here. We’ll see if a new team (Tampa) as he returns from his injury will refresh him, but his first 257 ABs with SF resulted in only 4 HRs and a weak .253/.313/.358/.671 line. He’ll likely be kept and will contribute vs L or at least fill in vs R next year, but he is not the immediate answer at 3B CHI had hoped for.

Grade: C

2: Lance McCullers, HON RSP, BUR

Replay Impact: 7-3 with a 2.71 ERA leads the BUR rotation and was a big part why this team made an early run. The rest of the team let him down, as he did his part to contribute wins.

Carryover Impact: Only 14 starts so far and his numbers are not what they were last year. The 3.22 ERA is solid, but the 1.54 WHIP is the result of walking too many (45 in 81 IP). On the bright side, he seems to be coming around and is still striking out hitters (106 in 81 IP), so although he will probably just be in the back of the rotation next year, he still shows good promise.

Grade: B-

3: Randal Grichuk, SLN CF, OAK

Replay Impact: Playing great D while splitting time in RF and LF, he is hitting .303 while leading the team in extra base hits and RBIs. This team lacked some punch coming into the season and Grichuk was just what the doctor ordered, keeping this team in the heart of the Wild Card race.

Carryover Impact: Once again, the second full season is not being kind. Grichuk has been bouncing around between AAA and the majors and now that Holliday is hurt, the team is leaning toward trading for Gomez (.210 with 5 HRs) over playing Grichuk. The 13 HRs are solid, but the .213 average is holding him back.

Grade: C

4: Billy Burns, OAK/KC CF, SRD

Replay Impact: Playing great D in CF, but he has not been the offensive threat this team had hoped for. His speed has not been a factor (9 SB, 5 CS) and although he is crossing the plate, he has not been able to create the run support this pitching staff deserved, hitting only .278 with 36 RBIs.

Carryover Impact: It feels like a trend is forming. Another player in his 2nd full season is struggling, hitting only .230 with a .564 OPS. We’ll see if the move to KC helps, but he looks like he has moved into a 4th OF role.

Grade: C-

5: Trevor Bauer, CLA RSP, NYY

Replay Impact: He has not been the middle of the rotation guy NYY hoped for when selecting him 5th overall, struggling to a 6-10 record with a 5.28 ERA to date. Had he contributed as hoped, NYY might still be in the Wild Card race.

Carryover Impact: Finally a player who is doing as good or better than last year. Despite a stretch out of the rotation, Bauer was contributing very well to the tune of a 3.02 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. But that was before July and August, which have been awful for Bauer, inflating his overall numbers to 3.88 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Still, the HRs are down and his numbers are comparable. He just needs to relax and return to the form he showed before the All Star break.

Grade: C

6: Colby Lewis, TEA RSP, CRC

Replay Impact: CRC went into the season with one of the best hitting teams, but a weak and thin rotation. Lewis is no spring chicken, but he was expected to contribute some veteran leadership to the rotation, enough to keep this team in the Division race. That didn’t happen and the result was early struggles from CRC. Lewis has posted a miserable 5-10 record with a 4.96 ERA to date, forcing the front office to go out and trade for a new rotation.

Carryover Impact: At 36, Lewis was expected to contribute immediately and was not picked for his upside. Still, he came out of the gate really strong to the tune of a 3.21 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over 98 IP. Then he strained a lat muscle and has been out for almost 2 months. Hopefully he will return in early September and get close to 150 IP on the year - making him a great part time player for the front of a rotation next year.

Grade: C

7: JT Realmuto, MMN C, DYE

Replay Impact: DYE went into the draft with a gap at C, so there was an immediate benefit to this pick. Realmuto has been good behind the plate at throwing out runners, but has not set the world on fire with his bat. He is hitting only .225 with 18 RBIs for DYE, although the production was not helped by his teammates since he does have 18 extra base hits. As a team not really going for it this year, the ABs themselves do have some value.

Carryover Impact: Finally an early pick who meet and exceeded expectations. Not only did DYE find a good defensive catcher, but this one is hitting much better this year (.311 with a .759 OPS) and actually has better splits vs R. Best 2017 value of the top 7 picks for sure.

Grade: A-

8: Odubel Herrera, PHN CF, AAR

Replay Impact: AAR was not looking to compete this year, so this pick was not about immediate production. That is a good things since Herrera hit only .259 with 11 SBs. He did cross the plate 40 times so far and play good D in RF, but he was not enough to keep this team out of last in their (tough) division.

Carryover Impact: This year was more of the same for Herrera, as he is currently sitting at an OPS about 20 points higher than last year (as a result of better plate discipline and a better OBP). He is also doing a little better on the basepaths and has improved his HR total. All in all, a solid player to build around.

Grade: B

9: Cesar Hernandez, PHN 2B, CUB

Replay Impact: CUB is in rebuilding mode, so this was another pick more about the future. Still, Hernandez has contributed as the primary 2B and has done very well versus lefties to help his to a .267 overall average, crossing the plate 42 times and swiping an impressive 27 bases.

Carryover Impact: Another player posting improved numbers over last year, Hernandez has improved his average, on base and slugging slightly on way to a .724 OPS while holding down 2B for the Phills. On the downside, the mistakes on the basepaths have been frequent and he is not stealing as much, with only 12 SBs against 8 CS.

Grade: B

10: Ketel Marte, SEA SS, TAM

Replay Impact: TAM went into the season very week (at least defensively) at both 2B and SS, which made Marte a nice fit. He has only been played limited, as part of a 3 way platoon at SS and then as a late inning defensive replacement. When given the chance, he has responded with the bat to a .290 average with 6 SBs in just 100 ABs. No power to speak of, but he has improved the middle infield on this rebuilding team.

Carryover Impact: And we have another sophomore slump here, as Marte has struggled on the basepaths and at the plate, dropping to a .26 average with an OBP under .300 and no power. He continues to play solid D as the everyday SS (when not on the DL), but will need to finish strong to go into next year as the starting SS. On the bright side, his splits are better vs R.

Grade: C

11: Roberto Osuna, TOA Closer, CUB

Replay Impact: The last thing a rebuilding needs traditionally needs is a closer, especially one that already has one or two on the roster. Osuna has been used in a setup capacity and has not been able to replicate his real life numbers, posting a 3-4 record with a 4.10 ERA and only 1 save. His 13 HRs allowed is a sample of the problem leading this team to feel the pain in the loss column.

Carryover Impact: With Rondon, Strop and Miller (note - 2 Cubs) already on the roster, Osuna may never see time on this CUBs roster as a closer. That is a shame, since he is putting up incredible numbers at only 21 with a 1.93 ERA and 0.86 WHIP. 51 of 56 in his career in save opportunities and starting to look like one of the best in the game. This was a great pick.

Grade: A

12: Eduardo Rodriguez, BOA LSP, COL

Replay Impact: With Hamels and Young set to lead this rotation, Rodriguez was brought on to add some more depth to an already lefty heavy rotation. He filled his role to the tune of a 5-3 record with a 4.17 ERA in about half his eligible innings. The team has dropped below .500, but is still fighting for an early pick, so his remaining innings will be important.

Carryover Impact: Up until recently, Rodriguez has been awful to the tune of an 8.59 ERA and 1.74 WHIP. However, over the past month he seems to have found his grove and has posted a 2.80 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. If he finishes strong, he could be worth a back of the rotation spot and buy more time on the active roster to continue to develop.

Grade: C

13: Franklin Gutierrez, SEA RF, DUB

Replay Impact: On paper, this was arguably the best team entering the season and Gutierrez had arguably the best, although limited, card in the draft. Maybe his time on the bench was part of the struggles DUB faced early, as he has used up only half of his available ABs. Unfortunately, they have not been too valuable, with a .244 average, 4 HRs and only 14 RBIs. With 2 months to go and in a dogfight for the Wild Card, Gutierrez will have a chance to prove his value.

Carryover Impact: At 33, coming off an injury, his future value should not have been projected too high. As expected, he is fairing well against lefties to a .904 OPS, but his overall numbers and resulting playing time are a disappointment at .249 in 189 ABs. His power seems real with 11 HRs helping him to a .793 OPS. Still, his only value seems to be vs L, which makes him a questionable carryover.

Grade: C-

14: James McCann, DEA C, HEN

Replay Impact: With a need for a full time catcher, HEN jumped on one of the best prospects in McCann who played great D and had a solid bat. He has been fair at throwing out runners and has provided some defense to a rebuilding team, but he is hitting only .213 with 2 HRs and 22 RBIs.

Carryover Impact: Sophomore slump strikes again. McCann is hitting only .206 with a .609 OPS. He has lost the every day gig and now is primarily only seeing time vs lefties. There is some potential upside, but he will bring no value for next year.

Grade: D+

15: Chris Bassitt, OAA RSP, DET

Replay Impact: DET came in needing some help in the front of their rotation and BAssitt has delivered with a 5-2 record and 3.31 ERA. WIth 2 months to go, Bassitt is a big part of the reason DET looks to win their division and he will likely start a playoff game this year!

Carryover Impact: Tommy John after just 5 (bad) starts.

Grade: B-

16: Steven Matz, NYN LSP, TAM

Replay Impact: TAM came in to the year with a shot at making a run in his weak division, but really went more for future value then current cards in the draft. Matz was expected to fit that profile as well and has been a non-factor in the replay with only 5 starts (1-4 record).

Carryover Impact: I said he was expected to fit the profile of future value over current card value - and he delivered in a big way. Despite a recent injury, Matz is sitting with a 3.40 ERA and 1.21 WHIP, striking out nearly a batter an inning.

Grade: B

17: Ryan Goins, TOA Util, HEP

Replay Impact: HEP was expected to compete for the division and was looking for cards as a priority in the draft. Despite very good starters in Kendrick and Lindor at 2B and SS, HEP was in need of some ABs at both positions - a perfect fit for the defensive whizz Goins. He is hitting only .227 with limited offensive value, but his D has been a contributor to this #2 seed team.

Carryover Impact: Still a great defender, his average has dropped to .175 and he has been sent down to AAA. He looks to be heading back into the draft for next year.

Grade: C

18: Mitch Moreland, TEA 1B, YDR

Replay Impact: Looking for an everyday 1B option to support his division championship goals, Moreland was a great fit for YDR, bringing some left handed pop and great D. He has already hit 24 HRs and driven in 69 RBIs - both leading the team. He has delivered, although the team is locked in the wild card race instead of the division race.

Carryover Impact: His average has dipped from last year, down to .254. But he has a solid OB and is hitting for even better power, with 21 dingers already. He will continue to add some power to this lineup next year. Great late first round pick.

Grade: A

19: Taylor Jungmann, MLN RSP, SYI

Replay Impact: In the middle of a rebuild, SYI was looking for long term value here, but some immediate help to a weak rotation would not hurt. Jungmann has fared very well, leading the SYI rotation with a 6-6 record and very good 2.99 ERA. He did his part in the replay.

Carryover Impact: Not good. Jungmann has really struggled at both the major league level (9.15 ERA, 1.94 WHIP in 5 starts) and AAA, and now finds himself at AA. Unless SYI has a taxi spot for him, Jungmann does not look like he will be carried over.

Grade: C

20: Cody Anderson, CLA RSP, CUB

Replay Impact: In the middle of a rebuild, CUB was looking for long term value here, but some immediate help to a weak rotation would not hurt. Anderson has fared very well, leading the CUB rotation with a 5-5 record and very good 3.36 ERA. He did his part in the replay.

Carryover Impact: Not good. Anderson has really struggled at the major league level (7.15 ERA, 1.65 WHIP in 8 starts and 5 relief appearances) as both a starter and reliever, and now finds himself at AAA. Unless CUB has a taxi spot for him, Anderson does not look like he will be carried over.

Grade: C

PLAYOFF AND DRAFT PICK PROJECTIONS:

Playoff Projections:

Surprisingly, the Wild Card races may be settled and one Division Race is still very much alive. Most of the attention is likely on seeding and the top 3 picks!

Capitol Division:

HUC (14-10 last month, 87-51 overall) did not do great, but good enough to all but clinch the division, holding an 11 game lead over SRD (15-9, 76-62) with just one month to go. SRD is still in the Wild Card race, only 5 back of DUB and 6 back of CRC and nobody else between them to pass, but it does not look great for them right now.

Midwest Division:

DET (12-12, 72-66) has continued to struggle and now hold only a 2 game lead over CHI (16-8, 70-68). This one is going down to the wire, with 8 games between these 2 teams the final month. Note, CHI must also play playoff teams VRN and HUC, so DET has the easier schedule.

South Central Division:

HEP (14-10, 89-49) did just good enough to end the Division race over a struggling YDR (9-15, 75-63) and OAK (13-11, 75-63). A 14 game lead is nice, but HEP now cares about the 2 game lead over HUC for the #2 seed. These 2 teams go head to head the first 3 games of the month. HEP has the tougher schedule, but already 2-1 over HUC, if they can win 2 of those first 3 games and extend their lead to 3 games plus the tiebreaker, it should be over. Meanwhile, YDR and OAK sit 6 back of DUB and 7 back of CRC for the Wild Card, with SRD still to pass as well. It does not look good.

Coastal Division:

VRN (15-9, 90-48) continues to roll and still holds an 8 game division lead over CRC (17-7, 82-56) and 9 over DUB (15-9, 81-57). They also hold a slim 1 game lead over HEP and 3 over HUC in the battle for the top 2 seeds. VRN will face CHI, HEP and CRC this month, which means this is a race to watch. Meanwhile, DUB and CRC look to have locked in the Wild Cards, holding a 5 game lead over SRD and 6 over YDR and OAK. However, the 6 seed will face the “loser” of VRN/HEP/HUC and the 5 seed faces the CHI/DET winner. Note: DUB faces TAM (50 wins), BUR (62), CUB (59), AAR (58), HEN (51) and COL (62) this month, and then only OAK (75-63) as a team over .500.

Top Draft Pick Projections:

Right now, SRD, OAK and YDR have the top 3 picks, with CHI and DYE sitting at 4 and 5. This is the painful part, because although YDR and OAK at least have the consolation of an early pick should they miss the playoffs, NYY (SRD-1 is owned by NYY) will reap the rewards of a really unlucky season by SRD.

**Note - all commentary is not intended to offend, just to provide some “conversation” to recent activity.